Speech by Deputy Minister in The Presidency, Nonceba Mhlauli, at the Seminar in the University of Zululand

The Vice Chancellor of the University of Zululand,
Programme Director, Ms Mthembu,
Prof Shokane,
Prof Adetiba,
Prof Okpome,
Students,

Ladies and gentlemen,

Introduction

I wish to start off by admitting that this is certainly not a very easy topic to talk about, as it is in my view asking that we speculate about the future of the Government that I am part off.

It’s not easy that I may have my own biases and biases by their nature make at times to be subjective than being objective. I do however hope to give an objective analysis of the future of the GNU, in relation to its future prospects as outlined through the request you sent.

As we all know that, last year's National and Provincial Elections produced election results that forced all parties to work together to form a Government of South Africa that transcends political and ideological divides.

Coalition governments are formed when multiple political parties collaborate to create a majority in a Parliamentary system, are a common feature in many democracies around the world. These governments arise when no single party secures an outright majority, necessitating alliances to ensure governance.

The probability of success for coalition governments is influenced by a myriad of factors, including political compatibility, leadership dynamics, policy coherence, and external pressures. Today, we are here explore these factors and evaluates the likelihood of success for the Government of National Unity.

In 2022/2023 before the elections, already there was some form expectation that there might not be an outright majority, we saw the Democratic Alliance already coordinating parties, referred to as a moon shoot pact, and within the then ruling party, such discussion had already taken place, in particular reference to stabilising the local government sphere of Government.

Immediately, after the elections, various political parties with different ideological outlook agreed to come together to form Government, being binding together by the Statement of Intent.

The Democratic Alliance with the ANC were the first to sign the Statement of Intent, that was anchored on the support of the South African constitution, the bill of rights, inclusive economic growth, lowering the cost of living and creating employment amongst many points of convergence.

Political Compatibility

One of the primary determinants of a coalition government's success is the political compatibility between the participating parties. The Statement of Intent is a rallying point of all parties in the GNU, although, we cannot say that all these parties are politically compatible.

We know that it becomes very easy when parties share similar ideologies and policy goals, the coalition is more likely to function smoothly. However with, the GNU parties, there is diversity of views, especially on issues of redress, BBBEE, NHI and recently with the BELA.

These diverse views shows for instance, coalitions formed between the parties in the GNU do not necessarily have a shared economic or social policies at times agreement become cumbersome as is the case with the budget, agreement on legislative agendas, is not easy and there is constant debates thus increasing the potential for conflict.

These debates and contestation do not necessarily mean that the future of the GNU is bleak, because there is more that unites these parties than just narrow political interests.

The commitment to the constitution, rule of law, economic growth and all features of the Statement of Intent binds these parties together, however the ideological contestation will not stop and all of us must alive to that reality. 

Leadership Dynamics

The leadership within a coalition government plays a crucial role in its success. Effective leaders who can mediate between parties, manage conflicts, and foster a spirit of cooperation are essential. 

The presence of a strong, charismatic leader who commands respect across party lines can enhance the coalition's stability. However, leadership struggles or power imbalances can lead to friction, undermining the coalition's effectiveness. The ability of leaders to negotiate and compromise is often a decisive factor in the coalition's longevity.

The GNU has set up a clearing house led by the Deputy President to manage and resolve disputes and the leadership of the ANC, through President Ramaphosa and John Steenhuisen, consistently meet to resolve some issues outside of the Clearing House.

Policy Coherence

The success of the GNU also hinges on its ability to present a coherent policy agenda. A well-defined, unified policy platform can help maintain public support and ensure smooth governance.

The Medium Term Development Plan is currently being finalised and will soon be tabled in Parliament. It must be noted that the plan itself will be subject to contestation internally within the GNU.

Coalitions in general that fail to articulate clear policies may face challenges in implementing their agenda, leading to public dissatisfaction and potential electoral losses. The need to balance diverse party interests can complicate policy formulation, but successful coalitions find ways to integrate different perspectives into a cohesive strategy.

External and Internal Pressures

External factors, such as economic conditions, social movements, and international relations, can significantly impact the success of coalition governments. Economic crises, for example, can strain coalitions as parties may have differing approaches to fiscal policy.

The Budget Vote is just one example of differences on fiscal policy between the DA and the ANC, which resulted in the postponement of the 19 February Budget Speech by the Finance Minister.

Both the two parties, are different policy approaches on international relations, as we all surely know, the DA’s approach on Israeli-Palestine and or Russia-Ukraine conflicts don’t agree.

The ANC has it own historic position of none-alignment and DA’s position is basically pro West. Of course, this position, is shared by more than one parties within the GNU.

Similarly, social movements and political parties advocating for change can test a coalition's ability to respond effectively. International pressures, such as diplomatic conflicts as is the case with the South Africa-USA or trade negotiations, may also influence a coalition's stability.

The DA federal chairperson, Ms Zille for example has led a delegation to meet Donald Trump’s administration on the recent diplomatic spats, which resulted in our ambassador, Embrahim Rasool being declared none desirable just last week.

The biggest two political formations the Democratic Alliance and African National Congress have their own dynamics, and both will soon be going to their internal elective conferences, and the new leadership may obviously want to chart their own path and direction, which may have an effect on GNU.

In both these parties, you do get a sense of some of dissatisfaction about certain things about the GNU. Recently, for instance, the Sunday Times, did make a claim that some within the DA are not happy about Steenhuisen.

That being said, the internal contestation, may just be about internal power struggles within the two most important parties within the GNU, of which even the contenders are about consolidating their own power but no real policy shift.

In any case, jostling for political power happens within homogeneous and none homogeneous groups. I am not in anyway downplaying internal power contestations within these two political parties within the GNU.  

Conclusion

The probability of success for the Government of National Unity is contingent upon a complex interplay of factors, including political compatibility, leadership dynamics, and policy coherence, external and internal pressures.

While the Government of National Unity has and will continue to face significant challenges, but it also offer opportunities for diverse representation and collaborative governance. It will certainly not be an easy coalition.

The ability of GNU partners to work together effectively, navigate differences, and respond to external challenges ultimately determines their success. As such, the probability of success for coalition governments varies widely, depending on the specific context and dynamics at play.

In own context, the biggest political actors within the GNU, want to keep their own identity, maintain their own support base and not to be weakened, while pursuing their own historic vision on the future of South Africa, will continue to contest each other, but the Statement of Intent, guided by the earlier outlined principles will likely sustain the GNU for the next five years.

I thank you.